Mexico Economic Outlook 2022
In 2022, the Mexican economy will continue its recovery process
explained by the dynamism of the North American economy (our
main trading partner). Also, it is likely that the recovery
of private spending is maintained, but at a moderate rate. The above
would contribute to Mexico’s GDP reaching a growth of 2.2%. fits
recognize that said growth estimate is below
the forecasts of 3% of the Bank of Mexico and of 4.1% of the Secretariat
Treasury and Public Credit. Also, it is worth mentioning that despite
our growth forecast, the level of Mexico’s GDP continues
would remain below the levels reached before the economic recession
generated by COVID-19.
The expected growth of the Mexican economy in 2022 is sustained
on the following factors:

1) A marginal inertial growth of 0.5 percentage points (PP)
2) Stronger external demand for the better outlook
prevailing among the various market participants,
around manufacturing activity and private consumption
in the US With this, we anticipate that foreign demand
contribute 0.8% pts. to the growth of the domestic product
Gross (GDP) of Mexico.
3) Moderate growth in private consumption generated by the
recovery of employment in the Mexican labor market, which
it would add about 0.5 pp to the country’s economic growth.
4) The persistence of a certain weakness in private investment, in par
explained by the uncertainty about the same prospects for
growth of the Mexican economy. Thus, private investment could
contribute only 0.2 pp to GDP.
5) A reactivation of public spending that would add around 0.2
pp to GDP.